Original|Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author|Wenser (@wenser 2010)
Yesterday, following the major announcement in January about "plans to launch a tokenized securities trading and on-chain settlement platform supporting 7*24 hour trading," ICE Group (Intercontinental Exchange), the parent company behind the New York Stock Exchange, unleashed two more "big moves"—first, the launch of seven CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts, with plans to introduce a one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures contract based on the CoinDesk overnight rate (pending approval); second, the introduction of the Polymarket signals and sentiment tool, providing institutional investors with predictive market data, analysis, and other market signals. A series of actions indicate that, as the "parent" behind one of the largest stock exchanges in the U.S., ICE Group is building its own "new nine-son ecosystem."
Amid the deep coupling of traditional financial markets and the cryptocurrency market, ICE Group has transformed from a behind-the-scenes planner to a trendsetter.
ICE Launches CoinDesk Cryptocurrency Futures Contracts: Offering More Choices for the Securities Market
In our previous article, "NYSE Plans to Launch 7*24 Hour Tokenized Stock Trading, Leaving 'Competitors' Stunned," we provided a detailed analysis of the NYSE's ambition to consolidate liquidity of both TradFi and DeFi markets, along with presenting both positive and negative market perspectives at that time.
Within less than a month, the parent company behind the NYSE, ICE Group, has stepped out from behind the scenes to directly launch seven more crypto-native CoinDesk cryptocurrency futures contracts, including: ICE CoinDesk 20 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk 5 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk Bitcoin Futures, ICE CoinDesk Ether Futures, ICE CoinDesk Solana Futures, ICE CoinDesk XRP Futures, and ICE CoinDesk BNB Futures, all denominated in USD and cash-settled.
It is worth mentioning here that CoinDesk index-related crypto futures contracts offer the following advantages:
- 1. Historical—CoinDesk index metrics have been operational since 2014, with flagship indices like the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) long regarded as one of the industry's foundational benchmarks. BlackRock's BTC ETF products, among others, also reference it, and over $400 billion in assets (such as ETFs and funds) are currently linked to this index.
- 2. Comprehensiveness—The CoinDesk 20 Index covers approximately 90% of mainstream cryptocurrencies, using a market-cap weighting and cap design to avoid dominance by a single asset, meeting institutional-grade investment standards, with related products having a total market cap exceeding $16 billion; the CoinDesk 5 Index tracks the performance of the five largest components by market cap in the CoinDesk 20 Index, balancing index equilibrium while accounting for the market position of high-market-cap cryptocurrencies.
- 3. Pioneering—ICE Group has previously collaborated with CoinDesk Indices on Singapore futures products. The transparency and data quality of CoinDesk indices meet regulatory compliance needs and help ICE Group rapidly expand its crypto product line while lowering the understanding threshold for investment institutions.
Thus, ICE has introduced crypto futures contracts into the traditional financial trading market via CoinDesk indices, providing professional institutional investors with more trading options; it also indirectly brings more liquidity to the cryptocurrency market—with seven USD-denominated, cash-settled CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts, institutional traders can flexibly hedge risk assets and diversify asset portfolio allocations.
The subsequent product ICE Group plans to promote, the "one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures based on the CoinDesk overnight rate," further expands the influence of the cryptocurrency market on traditional financial markets.
It is no exaggeration to say that ICE's move is the first time a traditional securities exchange has introduced derivatives based on on-chain DeFi rates, which also means that the overnight borrowing annualized rates of on-chain lending protocols have gained recognition from traditional financial markets, facilitating investors in hedging USDC borrowing costs or locking in yields. Regardless of the product's price performance after launch, this is a historic step. Amid the current downturn in the crypto market, it is无异于 injecting a fresh wave of blood.
If we compare the traditional financial market to a vegetable market, the launch of CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts is like ICE Group's "vegetable stall" offering more "dishes" to customers; while the launch of the Polymarket signals and sentiment tool is akin to ICE Group providing "vegetable price impact indicators" to "shoppers" (Odaily Planet Daily note: i.e., professional investment institutions and investors) to help them make effective decisions on "which vegetables to buy."
ICE Group Launches Polymarket Signals and Sentiment Tool: An "Information Gold Shovel" for Investors
Last September, ICE Group invested $2 billion in Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation. At that time, the prediction market was still on the eve of a trading volume explosion, with industry monthly trading volume remaining around $5 billion. However, with the overall slump in the crypto market, the轮番上演 of prediction events, and strong追捧 from capital institutions, starting in the fourth quarter of last year, the entire prediction market赛道 saw a surge in trading volume—monthly trading volume repeatedly broke new records, quickly exceeding $13 billion in November, a more than fourfold year-on-year increase compared to the 2024 U.S. presidential election year.
Since then, Polymarket, touted as "the world's largest prediction market platform," has seen a new wave of growth in valuation, platform trading volume, and user numbers. Compared to traditional channels like polls and data research institutions, the more intuitive and collective wisdom-based information indicators of prediction markets have garnered increasing attention.
To some extent, the probability trends of various betting events on Polymarket are the best "risk signal indicators," and ICE Group precisely values its decision-support utility in this aspect.
As Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan stated: "Prediction markets reflect near-real-time collective expectations of market-driving events and have become a reliable information input alongside traditional data sources."
Similarly, let's use two simple examples to illustrate the specific role of this tool.
一、Betting events on Polymarket such as "the timing and method of the U.S. attacking Iran" can provide auxiliary information for energy asset traders, hedge funds, etc. If the likelihood of such an event suddenly increases and trading volume rises rapidly, it often indicates tensions in certain regions, and prices of energy sources like oil are likely to surge. Institutional investors can use this to提前建仓 for profit, or buy safe-haven assets and sell risk assets.
二、Various weather and climate betting events on Polymarket can serve as important auxiliary information for institutional investors to judge the production, price trends of大宗农产品 like corn and soybeans, and the rise and fall of related concept stocks. The real-time "event probability trends" on prediction market platforms can directly help investment institutions adjust their portfolios before weather events actually impact supply chains/prices, avoiding asset damage due to concentrated holdings of high-risk stocks.
In other words, various betting events in prediction markets can identify abnormal factors one step ahead, thereby concretizing the potential impact of related assets.
It is worth mentioning that Polymarket's related data is not the only source provided by ICE Group to institutional investors; previous sources also included data from Reddit and Dow Jones. Cross-verification from multiple sources can further enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of ICE Group's market signals and sentiment tools.
Leveraging this "truth machine" powered by real money, ICE Group has essentially opened a "probability window to see the future in advance" for institutional investors.
Summary: ICE Group is Building Its Own "Crypto Territory"
Last September, the U.S. SEC's Cryptocurrency Task Force held talks with the NYSE and ICE Group on cryptocurrency regulatory matters, covering crypto derivatives and tokenized stock trading. Prior to this, ICE Group had collaborated with Circle and Chainlink on USDC integration, and on-chain data for foreign exchange and precious metals.
Based on available information, in the crypto-friendly regulatory environment created by the Trump administration, ICE Group is striding into the "crypto finance era," assembling its own "crypto territory" through investments, collaborations, and expanding trading标的. In the near future, Original|Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author|Wenser (@wenser 2010)
Following the major announcement in January about "plans to launch a tokenized securities trading and on-chain settlement platform supporting 7*24 hour trading," ICE Group, the parent company behind the NYSE, yesterday unleashed two more "big moves"—first, the launch of seven CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts, with plans to introduce a one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures contract based on the CoinDesk overnight rate (pending approval); second, the introduction of the Polymarket signals and sentiment tool, providing institutional investors with predictive market data, analysis, and other market signals. A series of actions indicate that, as the "parent" behind one of the largest exchanges in the traditional world, ICE Group is building its own "new nine-son ecosystem."
Amid the deep coupling of traditional financial markets and the cryptocurrency market, ICE Group has transformed from a behind-the-scenes planner to a trendsetter.
ICE Launches CoinDesk Cryptocurrency Futures Contracts: Offering More Choices for the Securities Market
In our previous article, "NYSE Plans to Launch 7*24 Hour Tokenized Stock Trading, Leaving 'Competitors' Stunned," we provided a detailed analysis of the NYSE's ambition to consolidate liquidity of both TradFi and DeFi markets, along with presenting both positive and negative market perspectives at that time.
Within less than a month, the parent company behind the NYSE, ICE Group, has stepped out from behind the scenes to directly launch seven more crypto-native CoinDesk cryptocurrency futures contracts, including: ICE CoinDesk 20 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk 5 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk Bitcoin Futures, ICE CoinDesk Ether Futures, ICE CoinDesk Solana Futures, ICE CoinDesk XRP Futures, and ICE CoinDesk BNB Futures, all denominated in USD and cash-settled.
It is worth mentioning here that CoinDesk index-related crypto futures contracts offer the following advantages:
- Historical—CoinDesk index metrics have been operational since 2014, with flagship indices like the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) long regarded as one of the industry's foundational benchmarks. BlackRock's BTC ETF products, among others, also reference it, and over $400 billion in assets (such as ETFs and funds) are currently linked to this index.
- Comprehensiveness—The CoinDesk 20 Index covers approximately 90% of mainstream cryptocurrencies, using a market-cap weighting and cap design to avoid dominance by a single asset, meeting institutional-grade investment standards, with related products having a total market cap exceeding $16 billion; the CoinDesk 5 Index tracks the performance of the five largest components by market cap in the CoinDesk 20 Index, balancing index equilibrium while accounting for the market position of high-market-cap cryptocurrencies.
- Pioneering—ICE Group has previously collaborated with CoinDesk Indices on Singapore futures products. The transparency and data quality of CoinDesk indices meet regulatory compliance needs and help ICE Group rapidly expand its crypto product line while lowering the understanding threshold for investment institutions.
Thus, ICE has introduced crypto futures contracts into the traditional financial trading market via CoinDesk indices, providing professional institutional investors with more trading options; it also indirectly brings more liquidity to the cryptocurrency market—with seven USD-denominated, cash-settled CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts, institutional traders can flexibly hedge risk assets and diversify asset portfolio allocations.
The subsequent product ICE Group plans to promote, the "one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures based on the CoinDesk overnight rate," further expands the influence of the cryptocurrency market on traditional financial markets.
It is no exaggeration to say that ICE's move is the first time a traditional securities exchange has introduced derivatives based on on-chain DeFi rates, which also means that the overnight borrowing annualized rates of on-chain lending protocols have gained recognition from traditional financial markets, facilitating investors in hedging USDC borrowing costs or locking in yields. Regardless of the product's price performance after launch, this is a historic step. Amid the current downturn in the crypto market, it is无异于 injecting a fresh wave of blood.
If we compare the traditional financial market to a vegetable market, the launch of CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts is like ICE Group's "vegetable stall" offering more "dishes" to customers; while the launch of the Polymarket signals and sentiment tool is akin to ICE Group providing "vegetable price impact indicators" to "shoppers" (Odaily Planet Daily note: i.e., professional investment institutions and investors) to help them make effective decisions on "which vegetables to buy."
ICE Group Launches Polymarket Signals and Sentiment Tool: An "Information Gold Shovel" for Investors
Last September, ICE Group invested $2 billion in Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation. At that time, the prediction market was still on the eve of an explosion, with industry monthly trading volume remaining around $5 billion. However, with the overall slump in the crypto market, the轮番上演 of prediction events, and strong热捧 from capital institutions, starting in the fourth quarter of last year, the entire prediction market赛道 saw a surge in trading volume—monthly trading volume repeatedly broke new records, quickly exceeding $13 billion in November, a more than fourfold year-on-year increase compared to the 2024 U.S. presidential election year.
To some extent, the probability trends of various betting events on Polymarket are the best "risk signal indicators," and ICE Group precisely values its decision-support utility in this aspect.
Let's use two simple examples to illustrate the specific role of this event.
- Betting events on Polymarket such as "the timing and method of the U.S. attacking Iran" can provide auxiliary information for energy asset traders, hedge funds, etc. If the likelihood of such an event suddenly increases and trading volume rises rapidly, it often indicates tensions in certain regions, and prices of energy sources like oil are likely to surge. Institutional investors can use this to提前建仓 for profit, or buy safe-haven assets and sell risk assets.
- Various weather and climate betting events on Polymarket can serve as important auxiliary information for institutional investors to judge the production, price trends of大宗农产品 like corn and soybeans, and the rise and fall of related concept stocks. The real-time "event probability trends" on prediction market platforms can directly help investment institutions adjust their portfolios before weather events actually impact supply chains/prices, avoiding asset damage due to concentrated holdings of high-risk stocks.
In other words, various betting events in prediction markets can identify abnormal factors one step ahead, thereby concretizing the potential impact of related assets.
It is worth mentioning that Polymarket's related data is not the only source provided by ICE Group to institutional investors; previous sources also included data from Reddit and Dow Jones. Cross-verification from multiple sources can further enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of ICE Group's market signals and sentiment tools.
Leveraging this "truth machine" powered by real money, ICE Group has essentially opened a "probability window to see the future in advance" for institutional investors.
Summary: ICE Group is Building Its Own "Crypto Territory"
Last September, the U.S. SEC's Cryptocurrency Task Force held talks with the NYSE and ICE Group on cryptocurrency regulatory matters, covering crypto derivatives and tokenized stock trading. Prior to this, ICE Group had collaborated with Circle and Chainlink on USDC integration, and on-chain data for foreign exchange and precious metals.
Based on available information, in the crypto-friendly regulatory environment created by the Trump administration, ICE Group is striding into the "crypto finance era," assembling its own "crypto territory" through investments, collaborations, and expanding trading标的.
